Well, I am on the road again. I am on my way to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia for the 2009 PMI Global Congress - Asia Pacific. I am on the longest flight on the planet, nearly 19 hours, from the East Coast of the US, to Singapore. All hail the Boeing 777! Lots of time to think and to write.

My last post noted that I was on the road to the Arabian Gulf, for the 12^th Congress of PMI's Arabian Gulf Chapter.  Short story was that the event was superb. 1350 attendees, generally from the northern part of the Arabian Gulf, participated in one of best volunteer chapter congresses I have ever seen, anywhere. It was extraordinary. Yes, it demonstrated the power and value of volunteerism.

However, given all of the press we have had about layoffs recently, I wanted to share some other information about the economy, based on my observations from this region. First of all, let me share the general feelings in the area. The strange perception that I got when querying many of the attendees about the economy, the general feeling was, well, "relief." I know that sounds strange, but it is true. RELIEF!

The region has gone through a roller coaster ride, with the price of oil accelerating to over US$150 per barrel, and then down to about US$40, all in the space of one year. In addition, the region has been on a residential and commercial building binge in all of the countries. In fact, at the close of last year, there was an estimated US$3 trillion in projects, either underway, or planned. There was a shortage of every type of skill you could find.

Plus, the rule of the day was schedule compression. When oil had reached $150 per barrel, oil producing companies were desperately seeking ways to reduce the time to build oil and gas processing plants below the benchmark for such multi-billion dollar facilities. Needless to say, I can understand why they feel "relief."

However, that is only the tip of the iceberg. There seems to be a desire to invest now in getting good at project management. Many of the firms are investing in developing capability through certification, and investment in documentation.  Pat Weaver from Australia recently commented on one of my blog posts, saying that companies in Australia were ramping up as well in certification.

You know, it makes sense. In tight times, with jobs being scarce, companies seek ways to differentiate one professional resume from another. Credentials and degrees are clearly one way that helps sort out applicants. So far, there doesn't seem to be any evidence yet of layoffs of project managers.

However, there are some other observations I need to share:

1. Oil and gas projects are still underway but exploration projects are being delayed. There is a "wait and see" attitude about exploration. If oil gets to $60-$70 per barrel by year end, then it will increase. This parallels Schlumberger's recent layoffs (5,000 out of 84,000 employees) due to a reduction in exploration.
2. Residential and commercial construction is down throughout the region, particularly in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This sector is where the cancellation of projects seems highest.
3. Infrastructure construction is not slowing down at all, but rather accelerating. From the new Al Maktoum International Airport and light rail system in Dubai, to the six new economic zone cities and the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia, infrastructure rules. It will be the engine that will keep the economies going. And there is significant pressure to speed up delivery.
4. Alternative energy and investment in research for alternative fuels are picking up in the region, not just from companies like Royal Dutch Shell or Exxon Mobil. If you get a chance, check out the Masdar Initiative in suburban Abu Dhabi. You will be blown away.

OK. So, that is the report for now. I also wanted to let you know that PMI is working on a dashboard of leading indicators on the economy, and specifically on project-related work. These indicators will be posted on the PMI website soon for all of you to see. Keep your eyes out for it. Also, I will let you know when it is available.

More later.