I am excited about this dialog. And I am so committed to this topic that I have helped PMI establish a community of practice for our members to share experiences and ideas about integrating global sustainability thinking into all projects and about integrating project, program, and portfolio management into all global sustainability actions.  Therefore, I encourage all PMI members to join the PMI Project Management Global Sustainability Community of Practice.

I am just finishing up a three week, six city, five country trip through Europe. I must say it has been a great trip. I was drawn to Europe because of a series of PM forums and congresses. I met with professionals from nearly 40 countries and talked about the economy; project, program and portfolio management; and above all, how companies and governments are weathering the storm through a turbulent global economy.

However, one of the best parts of the trip was the short four day holiday with family and friends while I was in Europe. Yes, yes, yes...it was another motorcycle tour, with most of the same culprits from my tour following the 2008 Global Congress-North America. Nathalie Udo, outgoing president of the San Francisco Bay Area Chapter of PMI (born and raised in Holland) was the tour leader this time.

We drove through Germany, Netherlands, Luxembourg, and Belgium. Our starting point was in Amsterdam and the tour cities Included in Maastricht, Netherlands; Trier, Germany; Leuven, Belgium; and finally back to Amsterdam. The countryside, the motorcycles, the weather, and above all, the fellowship were all wonderful. It is always about the people, the friendships; the new memories really make the difference.

In seven years, I have visited nearly 60 countries, amassing nearly 1,500 days on the road. On each of these trips, I always discover things that are embedded in my memory forever. This trip was no different. One was personal transportation in this part of the world. In Holland, there are 650,000 bikes registered. Bicyclists, and bicycle lanes, were as common as cars and roads. The riders were in all sizes, shapes, dressed for work, play, and formal events, and carried everything conceivable with them. And, they commute in the rain or on sunny days, in warm weather, or when it is cold. They use clothes and layers to manage the weather.

There is nothing like it in North America. It was amazing. Now most people know that about Amsterdam and the Netherlands. However, in every country we drove through, there were well-maintained biking and hiking lanes all around: in the hills, the cities, the suburbs, and the countryside. Bicyclists, walkers, and hikers were commuting throughout. It was the alternative form of transport. It was carbon free transport, a very healthy carbon free transport.

Another thing had to do with the way that pedestrian expectations are managed in most places. In Germany, people wait at red traffic signals, even when there is no traffic coming. There is no impatience, "bolting" across the street; people stand and talk! (Go figure). In Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., California, and most other big U.S. cities, people wait for the chance and go! On the east coast of the U.S. it is almost a sport to see who wins in the crossing: the pedestrian or the vehicle.

Even the timers on the traffic signals are different in Europe. You know those big digital timers that are being placed with signals for pedestrians? In the U.S., they kick off when it is permissible for the pedestrians to cross. The time counts down until you have to run to save your life, when the numbers change from green to red. In your mind, the expectation is "time is running out"; I have to run! In Germany and Holland the timer only counts down the time until the light turns green and allows you to walk. In your mind, you are thinking "hey, I will get my chance soon; there is time in my future to cross." Very nice change!

However, don't get your hopes up... Italy is like a festival at every crossing. The lights are there for celebrating the latest holiday, and cars, scooters, and people mix like a grand fish stew. It never looks like it will work when you look at it, but when you taste it, it works perfectly.

It is interesting that we are all so different. The world has immense diversity, yet as we sit in a global recession, we recognize that no one is immune. Society, the planet, our economy... we are all linked.

Our ride was no different. It included individuals from Sweden, Holland, and the U.S. We differed in age, gender, industry, and jobs. We have met one another's parents and in some cases, children, shared about our lives and futures, and what we all believe in. All so diverse, like the countries and the landscapes we drove through; like the six languages spoken in those countries; and like the foods we ate along the way. Yet, it all started with two common passions: PMI and motorcycles. And now it has grown to include a third: friends.

How lucky I am.

More later.

OK, you may think I am a bit crazy, but I think we are missing a remarkable example of growth in Europe, because of all the publicity that has surrounded the chaotic and phenomenal growth in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

I have been in Hamburg for a little over four days and have discovered a remarkable city with remarkable growth. It is the "greenest" city in Germany, with a green space ratio (planted space to built space) larger than any other city in Germany. It has a population of 1.7 million in the city, and 4.5 million in the metro area. It is only about 100km from the North Sea so it is a center for shipping and shipbuilding in Europe.

The Port of Hamburg is the second busiest (by cargo and shipping) in Europe, relinquishing the lead only to Rotterdam in Holland. It follows that it is the second largest duty free zone (but one of the oldest) as well. Over 10 million shipping containers (about 330 million tons) came through the harbor last year (this year, it is running about 10% down). The port is a maze of containers, ships and cranes.

It is also the home of Blohm + Voss shipbuilding, founded in 1877, and builder of some of the most notable vessels in history. Today, it boasts a portfolio of naval surface and subsurface vessels, and the world's largest and highest quality mega-yachts. Needless to say, Hamburg is a seafarer's city. I addressed the PM forum at the shipyard last week, which hosted the managers of the top 50 projects of the Technology Division of ThyssenKrupp worldwide.

However, it is also home to the largest urban development project in all of Europe. HafenCity is the former site of the largest and oldest harbor warehouse complex in Europe. Today, the area is under massive reconstruction, creating 5,500 new homes for 45,000 residents, a new Philharmonic Hall, and extensive space for retail and commercial businesses. The project is planned to continue through 2025, offering jobs and projects galore. There is a good bit of project work in that area.

So, when I think of my many trips to the Arabian Gulf, especially Dubai, it is not hard to see the parallels in Hamburg. So, I don't want to neglect the magnificent changes going here in Northern Germany. Hamburg is a vital and strategically important city to Germany and to Europe, and a wonderful city to visit. Man, I love this job!

More later.

I recently attended a meeting of the PMI Global Corporate Council (GCC), in Palo Alto, CA., US, home of Silicon Valley. The GCC is a council of more than 30 executives representing multi-national firms and federal government agencies throughout the world. These executives are champions for excellence in PM discipline in their respective companies and government agencies. They know what excellence means and have delivered results for their organizations.

At the meeting, I gave a detailed recap of the economy, and my observations of how companies around the world were reacting. All agreed with my observations, with one exception. The consensus was that each of their companies was actually investing in sharpening PM capabilities, varying from maintaining an educated core of project managers, to developing a better discipline in portfolio management. That is not to say that the companies had not restructured, or laid off employees. However, they were not cutting back on any new product development; and those related to federal government spending (stimulus spending in the US, India, and China), were hiring PM professionals. There is no question that the companies have suffered through the economy, but there seems to be a common commitment to making sure that they develop new products and have the team to launch them.

An article in the Wall Street Journal by Justin Scheck and Paul Glader, called "R&D Spending Holds Steady in Slump," supported the concept of continued development in the slumping economy. The article was based on a study conducted by the Journal, comparing 4th quarter 2008 R&D spending to prior year. The study focused on 28 multinational companies, with headquarters in the US (ex: Microsoft, Cisco, Google, Boeing, etc.) It turns out that average R&D spending dropped only 0.7% from the same quarter in 2007, compared to an average drop in revenues of 7.7%.

Although this is great news, we all know that if the economy takes a much deeper dive, many organizations will cut back. However, it still means that we may see continued investment in R&D. Lessons learned from the past, such as with Motorola, indicates that R&D is crucial to future competition. In 2002, Motorola slashed R&D by 13%. In 2004, they were very successful with the new RAZR cellphone, but then failed to follow up with critical new products, and ended up losing market share.

While I was in Brasilia, Brazil, last week, I met Carlos Heinz Loeben, PMO of Mobile Solutions and Services for Instituto Nokia De Technologica (Nokia Institute of Technology). We talked about the economy and its impact on product development. Given that new product lead time (or life cycles) has dropped to nearly 6 months in telecommunications, I was concerned that high tech companies like Nokia would fall behind. He said that Nokia, like all companies, is suffering through the downtown in the global economy, but that they were investing in new applications and new markets, beyond traditional mobile markets, such as healthcare information and data sharing.

R&D and new product launches are critical applications for PM implementation. Applying excellence in this area will only ensure that companies can accelerate out of the bottom of the economic downturn faster than their competition. It is no doubt a careful balancing act for an executive team, but it is clearly a risk worth taking.

Later.

Our staff has been trying since the Obama Presidential transition to convince the new administration that a Chief Portfolio Officer was important to the success of the ARRA. Truly, having a CPO on a US$1 trillion stimulus plan is not an outrageous request. It is sensible, right? Someone who will look at the distribution of funds to ensure that they reach to projects and programs intended, and balance those resources as the various stakeholders vie for the funds. Too, we need to ensure that the stimulus funds achieve their intended objectives....in many cases, people at work! That's what a portfolio officer, versus a performance officer, could do.

Take the issue of jobs. The latest figures in the USA show an unemployment rate over 8.5%. The intent of many of the "shovel ready "projects is to keep the unemployment rate below 9%. That is a real challenge, given the growth of the layoffs and restructuring globally of multi-national firms. Unless the stimulus funds in the USA, and in any country with similar directed funds, produce new jobs, we will see unemployment rates at levels not seen in more than 35 years. It makes sense to create a portfolio office that will stay connected to the results of the investment, and have the power to redirect the funds for good use.

Well, you would think this is a rational idea. However, in the grand scheme of things, it has gone virtually ignored. Unfortunately, this is not an issue that seems important to the Obama administration. In fact, VP Joseph Biden has been asked to oversee the implementation, and a director of the board of the ARRA has been appointed as well. But their big issue seems to be waste and fraud. However, this should be about results, and governments have demonstrated they are more effective at policy formulation and approval than about achievement of results or policy deployment.

To prompt discussion, we prepared an opinion piece for the news media in the hope that the business press would react favorably. I'm happy to report that

Forbes.com has published the piece. Check it out here, and be sure to comment on the piece. Your participation will help raise the visibility of this important subject.  Business leaders globally need to push for this type of action. The disciplines of portfolio, program and project management are crucial to the world's economic recovery. Business leaders understand the need to be held accountable for results. Governments worldwide need to do the same. Later.

I mentioned in an earlier blog post that I recent attended the Scrum Alliance gathering in Orlando, Florida, USA. I won't revisit it, but I will tell you about an interesting Scrum Master that I met.

His name is Tobias Mayer, an agilest who was a skeptic (NOT a cynic, by the way) of our presence. He was legitimately worried about PMI's presence. However, after my remarks, he joined us for nearly 45 minutes sharing his pleasure with the commitment and the comments about PMI. It was a very rich discussion indeed. In fact, even though I didn't know him, I felt that our conversation was long overdue. It was as if we had started this conversation before but then waited until that day to continue it. Strange, yes, but it was a great conversation.

He said something that really rang a bell. He said that though Scrum addressed software development and project management, it was more about a value-based work framework, driving such values as respect for everyone's opinion and contribution to the project team, consistent and shared vigilance to risk, and more. He felt that it was developed not only to develop software faster and more effectively, but to provide a new culture of work, and new leadership values and principles. He particularly focused on the fact that it was a movement in the business world rooted in Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). (Note: Relationship of CAS to business systems was an outgrowth of Complexity Theory, and before that Chaos Theory, pioneered by individuals such as M. Mitchell Waldrup and James Gleick. Tobias recommended Surfing on the Edge of Chaos by Richard   Also, I would check out the Santa Fe Institute for specific research on the subject.)

His point was really quite interesting. He made me think about the human involvement of project management and software development. In our congresses and through all of the literature, more space is being devoted to the "leader of the 21^st century." The leader has facilitation skills, employs team approaches to solve problems, and works well with and resolves conflict, engages more individuals to gain diversity of thought, and can bring convergence from such wide diversity. Clearly, our ideal leader is one who is far less hierarchical and autocratic, and believes in engagement as a way of doing business.

However, executives want PMs to possess business skills too. They expect individuals to be decisive and realistic, and understand the policies and politics of economic sustainability. And, above all, they want rigorous accountability and transparency.

Wow, it isn't too easy to meet both left and right brain requirements of the job today. But I think the point Tobias was making was that it requires a "culture" of engagement at the project level, and also to seek the right balance of discipline and accountability, with real solutions.

I really hope Tobias and I have time to talk again soon. As I said, he is one of those people that you realize you are overdue for a more in depth conversation.

More later.

I recently attended the Scrum Alliance Gathering in Orlando, Florida. I attended with Mark Langley, PMI Executive VP & COO at the urging of David Prior, Chair of the Board of the IT&T SIG. The intent of the visit was to bridge the gap between the Scrum Alliance and PMI. But I guess the real reason we attended was to dispel the myths that surround the PMBOK® Guide and Agile practice. There is a widely held opinion that the PMBOK® Guide and Agile don't mix... they can't be "shaken, nor stirred" together. It surprised me that such an opinion was held since the PMBOK® Guide - 4^th Edition recognizes Agile in several areas -  perhaps without direct attribution -  but nonetheless, it is recognized.

I could go into an explanation of agility, agile PM or Scrum, but if you are interested, you can find it on PMI.org, or search Google. My concern was the apparent misperception that the framework in the PMBOK® Guide - 4^th Edition is not applicable to "PM Agilests."

I went with an open mind and actually had it filled with great information and dialog. It was enlightening. We met with Ken Schwaber and Jeff Sutherland, the founders of the Scrum concepts, and Jim Cundriff, Managing Director of the Scrum Alliance. All were really receptive and eager for collaboration. Ken and Jeff in particular were striking in their passion for simplicity and agility, with fascinating backgrounds and rigor in the field of software development. They have committed their careers to speeding the development of software, and creating a PM movement that is based on iterative planning, speed, collaboration, and consistent vigilance to risk. They were definitely of the "explorer" variety and have done a lot to improving the speed to market for software development.

However, there was great anticipation among many Scrum gatherers that PMI was going to do something wrong. I accepted the fact that there were many who thought Mark's and my attendance was not a good sign, but rather a bellwether for competition and encroachment. It was based on skepticism, not cynicism, which is clearly not a bad thing...in fact, it might be a really good thing. Professional skepticism holds everyone accountable.

Well, my remarks were well received, and committed us to understanding one another and collaborating wherever we can. Many of the attendees really resonated on the desire to collaborate, and maybe recognized that there was a great deal of room to collaborate. The team of PMI volunteers that is putting together the new PMI Agile Forum was in attendance and was the driving force in getting us to attend the meeting. They too were energized.

There is no question that agile PM is a leading and emergent practice. It has great traction in software development and software installation. It is now moving into mainstream activities such as manufacturing in the telecommunications field. I was in Lima, Peru recently, and I spoke with many of the PM leaders there. Agile is on the move in Peru, where 60% of the GDP is driven out of small and medium sized companies. Agile approaches to PM are more the rule than the exception in these applications.

The movement in Extreme PM, Agile PM, and Scrum are movements which are critical to understand in reference with the standards developed by PMI. No doubt about it. And, the critical issue is to dispel myths and misunderstandings that would allow PM to prosper. There are zealots on both sides of the issue. In fact, I was as surprised of the number of PMI members who either misunderstood, or to the extreme, feared Scrum. So the issue is on both sides of the fence.

On the Scrum side, there was the perception that "the PMI way is incompatible with agile." And there is also a misperception that PMI "methodology" pushes against the movement of speed and agility in PM. Both sides of the proverbial fence share misunderstandings that needed correction.

I really hope the PM Agile Forum will clear this up and find a way to make PM continue to prosper to meet the needs of every organization. That just makes me crazy! I know that the PMBOK® Guide, at least the 4^th edition, is compatible with iterative planning, scalable WBS, etc. Yet, the misperceptions exists.

The issue that gets in the way of an agile approach seems less the issue of the PMBOK® Guide, but more the issue of organizational culture. High demands for accountability, detailed planning, extensive reporting, mechanistic approaches, and hierarchical controls, may very well be averse to an agile approach. Maybe, just maybe, there should be strategic principles and values that address management style, instead of viewing management, and in particular project management as a tactical approach for which someone else is responsible.

More later.

Fredrik Haren, author of The Idea Book, was the keynote speaker at the 2009 PMI Global Congress - Asia Pacific this week in Kuala Lumpur. Fredrik is a provocative speaker, with a tremendous amount of energy. The audience thoroughly enjoyed his presentation.

He has captured and promotes an interesting definition of innovation. A person innovates when:

Two formerly known "things" are joined together in a different and new way.

Well, now, that is as simple as it gets. It is interesting in that I read an article on 6 February in the Financial Times (FT) that addressed this very definition. It was titled "Interoperability: The Great Enabler," by Michael Schrage, a researcher at MIT's Sloan School of Business, and the Imperial College Business School in London. Basically, Schrage supports that the prospect for innovation in the current environment has never been more robust. He attributes it to the fact that innovation is occurring to allow "things to interoperate" or work together.

Interoperability has traditionally been attributed to information systems working together at some scale, such as internet protocols allowing diverse data warehouses to mingle and work together. However, innovation in interoperability has allowed the internet to leapfrog from an information resource to become a telecommunications, multimedia, and multifunctional platform.

This means that products and services, and business processes for that matter, will be able to leverage one another, and, as Fredrik Haren said, join together in a different and new way. Consider the Nike Shoe Accelerometer interfacing with a pacemaker, to ensure that a cardiac patient doesn't over-exercise. Or, a new BMW automobile that will have complete internet connectivity a so that it can get real time adjustments in engine performance directly from the factory.

For the project world, interoperability presents both an opportunity and a challenge. In its purest sense, every PM needs to understand the impact that their project has on its environment. Traditionally, it has meant the immediate "connective surroundings." However, in IT projects, this is not simple. Nor will it be simple as every project is assessed with its interoperability with the environment.

In fact, when I queried Fredrik about advice for project professionals, he said that innovation in project teams will be best suited by spending more time in a rich dialog about what you are supposed to achieve. Ricardo Vargas, 2009 PMI Board Chair, interprets this as spending as much time on scoping as you do on any other part of the project. In fact, he believes that the real payoff in any project is robust development of both scope (requirements planning) and a risk plan. If we look to the interoperability of any project to its environment, there is a real opportunity for a breakthrough in project performance.

Well, that what I think today. Read the article for yourself and let me know what you think.

More later.

It was a rainy Tuesday morning in Kuala Lumpur, about 0630, and I was having breakfast after working out. I was reading through the daily issues of the International Herald Tribune (IHT), and the Wall Street Journal Asia (WSJA). Normally, I just let the news of the economy aid in my digestion. However, on Tuesday morning, I was struck by articles on education in both publications.

The first article was part of a special report on International Education in the IHT. The article was titled MBA a Safe Haven, by Sonia Kolesnikov-Jessop. Basically, the article addressed the fact that enrollments and applications were up for full time MBA programs. At the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST), for example, applications for an MBA are up 50% over 2007. Although this is interesting, it isn't earth shattering news. However, what caught my eye was the following paragraph:

"But with fewer jobs for the their graduates, especially in the financial sector, and radical changes reshaping the global economy, business schools are having to rethink career services offerings, and in some cases their curriculums."

Ok, then. Now I am awake, and I push back my cereal to read on. I am seduced by this article, thinking maybe, just maybe, business schools might start building MBA programs that address execution, which might focus more on how to get predictable business results (hmm, maybe project, program and portfolio management), rather than pure analytical skills. And so, I eagerly read on while my cereal got soggier.

Well, the seduction continued. George Yip, Dean of the Rotterdam School of Management was quoted in the article as saying that corporations are becoming far more cautious about sponsoring employees in their pursuit of an MBA. In fact, he said:

"Given that there are advantages to having more qualified managers, there has also been a trend to more business case-style applications...with a firm cost-benefit analysis."

Now we're talking! I knew it would come soon...I believed that the article would quote academic executives that would say something like "graduates need more skills and competencies in areas like project, program, and portfolio management."  I just knew it. Who cares about the cereal, I am going to read about an intellectual breakthrough!

As luck would have it, I was disappointed. Though the article proved to be interesting, and to some extent valuable, it didn't play out they way I had hoped. Instead, it placed heavy emphasis on career coaching and outplacement help, except for one very disappointing quote from Stephen DeKrey, MBA program director and senior associate dean of the business school at HKUST.

He said that graduates in the future will face a different marketplace, with Government playing "...an increased role in corporates, and it's important for students to understand that."  Fair enough! He goes on to explain that they need to change curriculum to address the changing marketplace. The big question is how will curriculum be changed?

Well, disappointment reigned when he said that the school was considering making "macro-economics" part of the core curriculum, rather than an elective. He states that "...all of what's happening worldwide is macro. It's a worldwide phenomena, and it just shows the importance of that knowledge base." 

Forgive my cynicism, but I just don't get it. Do we want graduates that can readily distinguish between supply-side and trickle down economics? Or do we want graduates who can successfully manage change that will transform the organization they work for? If, as the article says, there are fewer jobs in the financial sector, then why are universities considering changes that continue to prepare them for the same environment? It seems like "more of the same."

You know, there is a quote that I use often, but can't take credit for. It goes something like this: "Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is the definition of insanity."

I wonder, are we really going to get a different graduate, more capable of managing in this kind of environment -- or are we teetering on the brink? I don't know, but unless things have changed in the business world, I believe it is still all about results.

More later.

 I am flying again, this time home from the PMI Global Congress-Asia Pacific. The congress was held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and by most standards, it was a success.  More than 400 professionals from 32 countries networked, participated, and advanced their careers.

Though the global economy is still in flames (uh, no lie!), I am going to park the discussion on economy for today. I just want to talk about the people at the congress. First of all, it was one of the most diverse crowds I have witnessed in some time. The attendees came from countries in every continent of the world (apart from Antarctica, of course). There was an incredible mix of professional, ethnic, religious, and national diversity; they came from developing, emerging, and developed nations.

And yet, as diverse as the crowd was, the attendees were networking with, well, with a zeal and passion that I had not witnessed in some time. No one missed an opportunity to pick one another's brain. In fact, it was as if attendees ran to sessions, then ran to breaks and meal functions. And the crowd didn't dwindle as the hours and days progressed. It almost seemed that they were invigorated by every minute of the congress.

No doubt, the advancement of the profession is alive and well in the Asia Pacific region. There was an amazing display of PM diversity. I met my first Medical Doctor that was a PMP. He was from Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. He worked in medical insurance and risk, and recently achieved his PMP. He was attending the congress to build his competency in project management.

Another PMP I met was Alvin See Win, who works for a government agency called MIMOS in Malaysia. The mission of the organization is to fund applied research in frontier technologies, such as internet security, interoperability, etc. The young man led the Program Management Office for the organization, and was balancing a portfolio of research projects. He was eager to learn and was like a "sponge," absorbing all that he could, every minute he was there.

But a real highlight was meeting a young man named Kelly Nwosu from Nigeria. He is a 4^th year student at the technical university in Kuala Lumpur, majoring in Business Information Systems. He will graduate very soon. Now Kelly was committed. He is a student, and paid his own way to the congress to learn as much as he could about project management. He is also working on getting his CAPM. He was eager to ramp up his abilities in PM at graduation so that he could become a more valuable graduate.

However, what struck me about our discussion was his inquisitive nature, particularly in finding out how to be successful with PM. He wanted to know how he could make a difference as quickly as possible. Now here is a quiet, soft-spoken young man, a 4^th year student in university, paying his own way to attend the congress, driven to find out how he can ramp up his value.

I have no idea of how good he is as a student, or whether or not he is on the Dean's list for his academic achievements. What I do know is that he is driven to be successful; his greatest ability is his willingness to change for the better. As a very close friend of mine said once, "he has an unconditional willingness to be altered." In other words, he is thinking "hey, help me change in any way that is for the better."

It reminded me that if we are going to pull out of this global recession, we are all going to need a willingness to do things differently. We need to keep asking ourselves how each of us can make a difference, a positive difference, for others, for our organizations, and more importantly, for society. And we need to think like Kelly. It is not about what might happen to "me," but rather how can each of us make more of a difference in others.

Thanks, Kelly. You already are making a difference.

More later!

The thing that has been mulling around in my mind is the economy, and how we jump start it again. The entire world is dealing with the economy and "experimenting" with things. In the U.S., the Congress is reviewing a stimulus package submitted by newly elected President Barack Obama. The European Union recently passed a stimulus package worth nearly US$250 billion, with individual member nations contributing significant stimulus packages.

These stimulus packages generally include infrastructure investment, tax relief for individuals, tax relief for corporations, and debt relief to improve investments. Pretty sophisticated economics with art, science, and some magic all combined. 

The most important issue that I ponder, obviously, is just how focused these stimulus plans are on results. Is anyone thinking of these plans as a change portfolio, that must be managed correctly? Is anyone considering that the U.S. investment alone has the potential to dramatically increase the capacity of the federal government to "do stuff" by as much as 30%?

The US$850 billion package will create an immense amount of work just to distribute funds, make the adjustments in tax revenues and incentive distributions, changes in lending policies, etc. The closest thing we have heard about managing this is the creation of a new position called Chief Performance Officer. It was to be filled by Nancy Killefer, the person who reengineered the Internal Revenue Service in the U.S. Bad news: she withdrew her name because of a problem with unpaid taxes. GREAT! Another delay!

The position is supposed to be used to "eliminate waste in the federal government," but I am not sure what that means. Waste in money, time, human resources... will it be operated like a portfolio office...or will it be an office dedicated to reading thousands of reports?  I wish I knew.

Lots of good things have happened with respect to the project management discipline in the U.S. federal government, the government of the European Union, the government of the GCC countries in the Arabian Gulf, and in China as well. In all of these governments, the respect for and investment in developing competency in project management has grown dramatically. PMI staff working in India, China, Europe and the U.S. have, in the last five years, gone from getting no answer to phone calls, to getting calls to help them deal with competency development.  

In the U.S., the Department of State, Department of Energy, Office of Management and Budget, General Accounting office, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and the Department of Defense, to name a few, have developed extensive programs in project, program and portfolio management, and ramped up their work in recent years. The list of PM "heroes" in the U.S. federal government is growing, and getting better results every day. We could triple our staff, and we wouldn't have enough people to respond well.

However, in spite of this fact, we still don't hear about this as a key element in the success of these stimulus packages. Whether it is the politics, the spin, or what, it just doesn't get talked about. Let me give you an anecdote from the Near East that can emphasize what I mean. In Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah, the ruling sovereign, has launched a massive educational initiative, which involves all levels of education. One of the gems in this plan is the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST). It is the most sophisticated and leading- edge university being built in the region in decades.

The King was very committed to making sure that the project was delivered as planned. He wanted "insurance." So he turned to Aramco, the largest oil explorer and producer in the world, for the talent necessary to manage a project of this scale and magnitude.

Yes, he went to Aramco. Why? Well, he knew that Aramco delivered results and was globally recognized for its project management expertise. The person they chose was Ali Al-Ajmi, former Aramco VP of Project Management and Engineering, and former PM for one of the two major Aramco projects that received PMI's Project of the Year Award. And, to add to the challenge, the King asked that the University be opened one year earlier than planned. That plays out to asking a very experienced portfolio manager to manage a sophisticated project, in 25% less time than planned, outside his area of expertise. I would call that belief in the discipline.

That is what should happen with the stimulus plans. First, get the people who know how to manage complex change initiatives -- these are not career politicians but are experienced project professionals -- who can manage change portfolios... that can get results.

Second, emphasize the competency of project management, like they have begun to do in many of the governments around the world. But they should not allow "pockets" of excellence to prevail.  On the contrary, the governments should leverage the pockets of excellence to develop an enterprise discipline in project execution.

Finally, we need to advocate for accelerating the project. This should be a Phoenix Project, like the rebuilding of the US Pentagon building in 2002. Procurement and deployment must be done on a fast track mode. There couldn't be a greater sense of urgency right now. The global economy is dependent on success.

More later.

Well, I am on the road again. I am on my way to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia for the 2009 PMI Global Congress - Asia Pacific. I am on the longest flight on the planet, nearly 19 hours, from the East Coast of the US, to Singapore. All hail the Boeing 777! Lots of time to think and to write.

My last post noted that I was on the road to the Arabian Gulf, for the 12^th Congress of PMI's Arabian Gulf Chapter.  Short story was that the event was superb. 1350 attendees, generally from the northern part of the Arabian Gulf, participated in one of best volunteer chapter congresses I have ever seen, anywhere. It was extraordinary. Yes, it demonstrated the power and value of volunteerism.

However, given all of the press we have had about layoffs recently, I wanted to share some other information about the economy, based on my observations from this region. First of all, let me share the general feelings in the area. The strange perception that I got when querying many of the attendees about the economy, the general feeling was, well, "relief." I know that sounds strange, but it is true. RELIEF!

The region has gone through a roller coaster ride, with the price of oil accelerating to over US$150 per barrel, and then down to about US$40, all in the space of one year. In addition, the region has been on a residential and commercial building binge in all of the countries. In fact, at the close of last year, there was an estimated US$3 trillion in projects, either underway, or planned. There was a shortage of every type of skill you could find.

Plus, the rule of the day was schedule compression. When oil had reached $150 per barrel, oil producing companies were desperately seeking ways to reduce the time to build oil and gas processing plants below the benchmark for such multi-billion dollar facilities. Needless to say, I can understand why they feel "relief."

However, that is only the tip of the iceberg. There seems to be a desire to invest now in getting good at project management. Many of the firms are investing in developing capability through certification, and investment in documentation.  Pat Weaver from Australia recently commented on one of my blog posts, saying that companies in Australia were ramping up as well in certification.

You know, it makes sense. In tight times, with jobs being scarce, companies seek ways to differentiate one professional resume from another. Credentials and degrees are clearly one way that helps sort out applicants. So far, there doesn't seem to be any evidence yet of layoffs of project managers.

However, there are some other observations I need to share:

1. Oil and gas projects are still underway but exploration projects are being delayed. There is a "wait and see" attitude about exploration. If oil gets to $60-$70 per barrel by year end, then it will increase. This parallels Schlumberger's recent layoffs (5,000 out of 84,000 employees) due to a reduction in exploration.
2. Residential and commercial construction is down throughout the region, particularly in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This sector is where the cancellation of projects seems highest.
3. Infrastructure construction is not slowing down at all, but rather accelerating. From the new Al Maktoum International Airport and light rail system in Dubai, to the six new economic zone cities and the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia, infrastructure rules. It will be the engine that will keep the economies going. And there is significant pressure to speed up delivery.
4. Alternative energy and investment in research for alternative fuels are picking up in the region, not just from companies like Royal Dutch Shell or Exxon Mobil. If you get a chance, check out the Masdar Initiative in suburban Abu Dhabi. You will be blown away.

OK. So, that is the report for now. I also wanted to let you know that PMI is working on a dashboard of leading indicators on the economy, and specifically on project-related work. These indicators will be posted on the PMI website soon for all of you to see. Keep your eyes out for it. Also, I will let you know when it is available.

More later.

I made it to Dubai, and now awaiting a flight to Bahrain. This airport constantly reminds me of diversity...in culture, language, religion, profession. It has become a hub comparable to any great transport hub in the world. Very interesting place.

Well, I am back to my favorite subject right now...the global economy. I am forever frustrated that the economic condition is uncertain, declining, and keeping us from a focus on value. I called it the great global distraction but we can't look at it as a distraction but rather as part of life. It is living life on life's terms, not ours.

There is a significant effort globally toward government based stimulus plans. It is not a US phenomenon, and not a matter of just cutting taxes or making loans safe. These stimulus plans are loaded with projects and for the most part, represent a critical portfolio of change. In the US, there is already about US$160 billion in infrastructure construction in the original US$750 billion plan, not including the significant increase that President Obama is now pushing through congress. China is investing nearly US$500 billion, in the same approach.

Our economies are so different. Bob Chen, PMI's Managing Director in our Beijing office, pointed out that slightly more than 50% of the GDP in China is from government funding, which is about four times the contribution from government in the US. The US is a consumer economy, no doubt about it. Yet, the plans are similar: shoring up the money market, cutting taxes, and lots of infrastructure construction.

Asia is also caught up in the need for infrastructure construction. It is estimated by the World Bank and the Asia Development Bank, that Asia needs about US$250-300 billion per year in infrastructure construction to sustain its growth. I spoke with Raj Kalady, PMI's managing director in India and his staff last week, and they informed me of the same thing as China: weakening of their prime markets (in this case, IT outsourcing), while the government is investing heavily in their 11^th five year plan to build infrastructure to sustain growth. Every conceivable aspect of the infrastructure in India, and other countries in Asia, needs attention. All across Asia, from India to Southeast Asia, there is a movement to infrastructure.

The national governments in Europe are also taking the same approach. Spain, Italy, and countries in Central Europe, are all beginning to increase funding to federal, state and municipal governments, to spur the economy. While where I am today - in the Arabian Gulf - oil exploration is slowing down because of the significant fall off in demand and the rapid drop in the price of a barrel of oil. The bubble in real estate has burst in some parts of the Arabian Gulf, but it is still alive, particularly in Saudi Arabia. However, infrastructure development still goes on. In Dubai, for example, the rapid rail system and the Al-Mahmoud Airport (due to open in June) are both being accelerated.

The one interesting factoid is that McDonald's is expanding dramatically in Europe. In the latest issue of the Financial Times, McDonald's executives were quoted as saying they plan to add 240 new food outlets across Western and Central Europe. This will add about 12,000 jobs and create a big portfolio of change for them.

Digesting all of this, you come away with the conclusion that project work will continue to exist. Construction will certainly be a focus, but is not alone. Starting from the top, all of these government plans are massive change portfolios. The need for portfolio and program management in the public sector has never been greater. Unfortunately, federal governments are not known for their excellence in portfolio management, with the exception of maybe China, which is a centrally controlled economy.

Even with construction as the focus, technology rules! In the US, federal buildings will go through a "greening" process, and green buildings have to be smarter. Power distribution and alternative energy sources also have to be smarter, and will spur development in new areas. The governments of the world have not choice but to focus more on innovation, results, and on technology. Obama, for example, is adding a Chief Performance Officer (CPO) position in the White House, and also a Chief Technical Officer (CTO). This is not new to countries like Finland and Singapore but is very new to the US. I suspect other countries will follow suit if they have not already done so.

Rail, air, and road construction requires a variety of associated project management approaches.  IT, finance, and HR will all need attention, especially in the arena of project management.

So, will it be a "breeze" for project managers during this recession? It's doubtful, very doubtful. No profession is going to be unscathed. However, I think that there will be more project work distributed than we can imagine right now. The PM talent gap will shrink quickly, but will the PM practitioner still have work?

I think so, but we'll have to see. More later.

I am back after a short absence. I am on a late flight to Bahrain in the Arabian Gulf, via Dubai. PMI's Arabian Gulf Chapter asked me to keynote their congress, which expects to draw some 1,000 PM professionals from the region. I am sure I'll have a lot to share later in the week.

You know, my delay in writing isn't because of a lack of things to talk about, particularly about the state of the global economy, and our profession. But the global economy is so dynamic and chaotic right now, it seems that one day's post is out the window by the morning of the next day. It is very unusual, but not so unusual that chaos hasn't reigned before. It happened in the early part of the millennium, in the late 1980s, and clearly the entire decade of the 70s. What we have to do is take as much from the past as possible and apply it... while being vigilant about today.

This brings up a comment to one of my posts by Patrick Moloney. Based on my post that referenced the CHAOS Chronicles, published by the Standish Group, his comment was:

"At $5,000 I don't think I'll be reading the Standish Report. Perhaps in your position, on the PMI budget, that's not an issue."

OUCH! Yet, he is right. It is expensive for one person. I see the results of the CHAOS Chronicles, but only in summary form when it is released each time (every two years I believe). We then can compare results from the previous study. But it is a summary presentation that we see.

Membership with the Standish Group is necessary to be a part of all of their research. It is pricey, but it is intended as a corporate affiliation to allow companies to benefit from their research. However, if your company does not subscribe, there is still an alternative. For those of you interested in seeing the conclusions of the studies surrounding IT successes and failures, conducted by the Standish Group, I encourage you to check out the following book:

My Life is Failure: 100 Things You Should Know to be a Better Project Leader by Jim Johnson

My Life is Failure is a summation of over a decade of work on project failure in IT. However, it is applicable in many ways to all projects. The Standish Group has been collecting case information on real-life IT environments and software development projects since 1985. Standish's cumulative research encompasses 12 years of data on why projects succeed or fail, representing more than 50,000 completed IT projects.

Although it is written in an unusual manner, it is a solid reference about what works and what doesn't work in his database of IT projects. It reveals a lot of good information. I hate to bring it up here, but it is available on PMI.org, in the Marketplace. I am not trying to sell books, but rather help all of you benefit from the research. It is inexpensive.

Patrick thanks for making the point. More later!  

Today I'm talking with Ricardo Vargas, Chair of the PMI Board of Directors and the manager of an $18 billion portfolio for Sonangol, an oil and gas company in Angola. Ricardo has worked around the world and sees huge opportunity for project managers who are willing to focus on risk management, be flexible and offer creative solutions that promote innovations for their companies. He is convinced that a disciplined approach to project management will emerge as a key driver for change and that executives will begin to identify project management as indispensable for business results.

Click the play button to listen to my discussion with Ricardo.

Today I'm talking with Gene Bounds, Vice Chair of the PMI Board of Directors and a principal with Booz Allen Hamilton. Gene looks through a government lens to recommend that professional project managers can be most successful in today's economic environment by broadening their perspectives and skills in order to prepare for a variety of challenges.

Click the play button to listen to my discussion with Gene.

Today I'm talking with Kathleen Romero, Secretary-Treasurer of the PMI Board of Directors and manager in Capital One's enterprise portfolio office. We'll be discussing opportunities for professional project managers who take the time to sharpen their tools, and be accurate and precise during this economic downturn.

Click the play button to listen to my discussion with Kathleen.

Over the next few days, I am going to experiment with a mix of text and video blogs. I thought it would be good to try new technologies. Don't expect broadcast quality, because it will be like any blog...spur of the moment, about 5 minutes maximum.

That is what we used to get you the blog...but it was the content that gave me more optimism. See, I plan to be interviewing several individuals around the world as I travel. I want to know what is happening with the profession during this economic downturn, but not from the papers and magazines and trying to interpret what is going on.

Rather, I want to hear and see what others have to say, including PMI leaders, members and other PM practitioners are navigating through this period of time. As you know, I believe that we are going to see more opportunity, and diverse applications, rather than a significant downturn. Projects will continue, businesses will recover, and we will be a significant part of the recovery... because in all of this, we must get results, like we envisioned, now more than ever.

So, I am starting with some of the PMI Board Members. Our board members number 15, come from countries throughout the world, and have countless years of experience in project, program and portfolio management. They have a great window to the world, and are actively engaged in managing their own portfolios, the portfolios of others, preparing people for taking on projects, and providing tools and software to manage their projects effectively.

So, next up will be video conversations with of some of our board members...  We'll literally "see" what these folks think... upside or downside for PM practitioners.

Yep, let's just see what they say. More later.

Color me naïve, but I am optimistic about PM practitioners during this economic downturn. Why, you ask? Well, I have to say it is because the facts are out there. Here are some of the facts that make me optimistic.

First, the US economic recovery plan has been leaking out, slow but sure, and it seems to be mirroring, in part, to the recovery plans in the Arabian Gulf and in China. Essentially, these three recovery plans focus on government sponsored infrastructure projects over the next three years. These are not "light" plans for recovery. In China, the plan is to invest nearly US$550 billion in infrastructure work, including bridges, dams, power distribution, railway and trains, etc. Each requires not only construction and raw materials, but a variety of supply, control, and finished goods industries.

In the Arabian Gulf, economic cities (Saudi Arabia), experimental alternative energy cities (Masdar in Abu Dhabi), light rail and airports (Dubai) are some of the accelerated...yes, that's right ACCELERATED, NOT DELAYED...projects in the Gulf region.

It seems that the USA is doing much the same with its recovery plan. It appears to be a robust plan of infrastructure, including the modernization and "greening" of US federal facilities throughout the world. Much needed renewal of highways, bridges, and other "horizontal" construction is central to the plan.

In addition, there is a plan for investment incentives in the form of tax deferrals and rebates to spur new business and consumer buying. Unfortunately I may be very old by the time Congress finishes debating the effectiveness of the various measures. But one thing is for sure: there is a lot of project business underway.

With all of the national government recovery programs is the demand for good execution, and in the USA, the Arabian Gulf, and China, PM is alive and well. Granted, the practice might be inconsistent, and in many cases,....well, substandard really....the need for excellence in PM is being rigorously referenced. In the USA, the new administration of Barack Obama has appointed a Chief Performance Officer to ensure better execution of projects.

Finally, during 2008, PMI completed a research project investigating a potential "gap" in the supply of qualified and experienced professionals. The report revealed that there would be a significant gap in the next five years, assuming that the economy would continue to grow at the rate it was growing. Well, it is clear that the growth did not happen.

But, it is realistic to assume that the "gap" was eaten up by the slowdown in the economy. In short, perhaps we will be facing a supply of qualified PMs equaling demand. This could mean continued work but without the rapid rise in salaries or compensation packages for qualified PMs that was experienced in the last five years. That is not superb news but seems to indicate that project work would still be available, and we might not experience layoffs.

Yep, I am optimistic. Sure the economy is slowing down. Yes, there should be a global increase in PM applications in infrastructure projects. And most likely we will see a leveling of salaries. But, that is still very good news when other industries and professions are facing layoffs.

Well, we will see. Am I too optimistic? Is this the time for PM practitioners to shine and help organizations survive? I think so, yes I do.

More later.

Back from a short holiday. It was great to rest up after a long year of outreach, advocacy and just plain work. It helps to be rejuvenated.

You may know that PMI has partnered with Forbes magazine to sponsor programs on innovation and leadership throughout the world. Because of the sponsorship, I read Forbes.com frequently, due to the interesting set of articles and information. Well, I just finished reading an article on Forbes.com and had to share it. Not because I am so pleased with it, but because I am dumbfounded by it.

The article is entitled Fixing IT (as in Information Technology) by Ed Sperling. I am usually provoked one way or the other by articles in Forbes; this time I am provoked in the wrong direction. The short story is the article states there should be five important things to have in your IT department to make is successful:

1. Get better connectivity (agree wholeheartedly... too much variance in connectivity throughout the world)
2. More bandwidth (I am "all over that"... speed and more speed)
3. More research for new IT technology
4. More "schemes" (could have used a better word!) for providing incentives to business to increase research and development, such as better tax breaks (better than leaving it up to the government to fix)
5. More openness (he means better clarity on the "right things" to communicate)

These are all good, no doubt, to put on a company's "to do list" as he states in the article. However, I think he misses probably the most critical "fix" needed in IT... BETTER AND MORE PREDICTABLE RESULTS! All the bandwidth and connectivity in the world isn't going to give what you set out to develop... or satisfy customers. It is results!

I am surprised... no, stunned is more like it... that he would make a to-do list for fixing IT and would leave out the need for better and more predictable results; or that more CIOs (Chief Information Officer) and CTOs (Chief Technology Officer) need to consider more effective PM. Evidently he doesn't think there is any room for improvement. Maybe he hasn't read the CHAOS Chronicles, published by the Standish Group.

If you haven't read the CHAOS Chronicles, you should. It is an ongoing study of a random 15,000 IT projects around the world. The biannual study has been done since 1994 and exposed great insight into the causes for successes and failures of IT projects. The shocker was that in 1994, the percentage of projects that were successful was around 20%... yep, 1 in 5 were successful. The good news/bad news is that the latest study showed that the success rate is up to about 30%... almost (but not quite) 1 in 3.

That is a 50% increase but no gold ring! We still have much to do to increase the success rate and predictability of IT related projects. We do need more research, but we need it into finding the success formula. Well... the CHAOS Chronicles always points out the successful projects have a few things in common, like DISCIPLINED PROJECT MANAGEMENT, and disciplined executive sponsorship.

I believe Mr. Sperling should rethink his to-do list. These items should be on it:

1. Projects aligned to the strategy and strategic objectives.
2. Executive commitment and loyalty to those projects... real understanding and commitment... not only in fair weather.
3. And...yes, you guessed it... a disciplined PM approach.
4. Oh, and if we are going to do research, let's research what works... sort out by experiment Agile vs. Extreme vs. whatever works... then catalog and follow it.

More later.