Well, I am on the road again. I am on my way to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia for the 2009 PMI Global Congress - Asia Pacific. I am on the longest flight on the planet, nearly 19 hours, from the East Coast of the US, to Singapore. All hail the Boeing 777! Lots of time to think and to write.

My last post noted that I was on the road to the Arabian Gulf, for the 12^th Congress of PMI's Arabian Gulf Chapter.  Short story was that the event was superb. 1350 attendees, generally from the northern part of the Arabian Gulf, participated in one of best volunteer chapter congresses I have ever seen, anywhere. It was extraordinary. Yes, it demonstrated the power and value of volunteerism.

However, given all of the press we have had about layoffs recently, I wanted to share some other information about the economy, based on my observations from this region. First of all, let me share the general feelings in the area. The strange perception that I got when querying many of the attendees about the economy, the general feeling was, well, "relief." I know that sounds strange, but it is true. RELIEF!

The region has gone through a roller coaster ride, with the price of oil accelerating to over US$150 per barrel, and then down to about US$40, all in the space of one year. In addition, the region has been on a residential and commercial building binge in all of the countries. In fact, at the close of last year, there was an estimated US$3 trillion in projects, either underway, or planned. There was a shortage of every type of skill you could find.

Plus, the rule of the day was schedule compression. When oil had reached $150 per barrel, oil producing companies were desperately seeking ways to reduce the time to build oil and gas processing plants below the benchmark for such multi-billion dollar facilities. Needless to say, I can understand why they feel "relief."

However, that is only the tip of the iceberg. There seems to be a desire to invest now in getting good at project management. Many of the firms are investing in developing capability through certification, and investment in documentation.  Pat Weaver from Australia recently commented on one of my blog posts, saying that companies in Australia were ramping up as well in certification.

You know, it makes sense. In tight times, with jobs being scarce, companies seek ways to differentiate one professional resume from another. Credentials and degrees are clearly one way that helps sort out applicants. So far, there doesn't seem to be any evidence yet of layoffs of project managers.

However, there are some other observations I need to share:

1. Oil and gas projects are still underway but exploration projects are being delayed. There is a "wait and see" attitude about exploration. If oil gets to $60-$70 per barrel by year end, then it will increase. This parallels Schlumberger's recent layoffs (5,000 out of 84,000 employees) due to a reduction in exploration.
2. Residential and commercial construction is down throughout the region, particularly in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This sector is where the cancellation of projects seems highest.
3. Infrastructure construction is not slowing down at all, but rather accelerating. From the new Al Maktoum International Airport and light rail system in Dubai, to the six new economic zone cities and the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia, infrastructure rules. It will be the engine that will keep the economies going. And there is significant pressure to speed up delivery.
4. Alternative energy and investment in research for alternative fuels are picking up in the region, not just from companies like Royal Dutch Shell or Exxon Mobil. If you get a chance, check out the Masdar Initiative in suburban Abu Dhabi. You will be blown away.

OK. So, that is the report for now. I also wanted to let you know that PMI is working on a dashboard of leading indicators on the economy, and specifically on project-related work. These indicators will be posted on the PMI website soon for all of you to see. Keep your eyes out for it. Also, I will let you know when it is available.

More later.

Color me naïve, but I am optimistic about PM practitioners during this economic downturn. Why, you ask? Well, I have to say it is because the facts are out there. Here are some of the facts that make me optimistic.

First, the US economic recovery plan has been leaking out, slow but sure, and it seems to be mirroring, in part, to the recovery plans in the Arabian Gulf and in China. Essentially, these three recovery plans focus on government sponsored infrastructure projects over the next three years. These are not "light" plans for recovery. In China, the plan is to invest nearly US$550 billion in infrastructure work, including bridges, dams, power distribution, railway and trains, etc. Each requires not only construction and raw materials, but a variety of supply, control, and finished goods industries.

In the Arabian Gulf, economic cities (Saudi Arabia), experimental alternative energy cities (Masdar in Abu Dhabi), light rail and airports (Dubai) are some of the accelerated...yes, that's right ACCELERATED, NOT DELAYED...projects in the Gulf region.

It seems that the USA is doing much the same with its recovery plan. It appears to be a robust plan of infrastructure, including the modernization and "greening" of US federal facilities throughout the world. Much needed renewal of highways, bridges, and other "horizontal" construction is central to the plan.

In addition, there is a plan for investment incentives in the form of tax deferrals and rebates to spur new business and consumer buying. Unfortunately I may be very old by the time Congress finishes debating the effectiveness of the various measures. But one thing is for sure: there is a lot of project business underway.

With all of the national government recovery programs is the demand for good execution, and in the USA, the Arabian Gulf, and China, PM is alive and well. Granted, the practice might be inconsistent, and in many cases,....well, substandard really....the need for excellence in PM is being rigorously referenced. In the USA, the new administration of Barack Obama has appointed a Chief Performance Officer to ensure better execution of projects.

Finally, during 2008, PMI completed a research project investigating a potential "gap" in the supply of qualified and experienced professionals. The report revealed that there would be a significant gap in the next five years, assuming that the economy would continue to grow at the rate it was growing. Well, it is clear that the growth did not happen.

But, it is realistic to assume that the "gap" was eaten up by the slowdown in the economy. In short, perhaps we will be facing a supply of qualified PMs equaling demand. This could mean continued work but without the rapid rise in salaries or compensation packages for qualified PMs that was experienced in the last five years. That is not superb news but seems to indicate that project work would still be available, and we might not experience layoffs.

Yep, I am optimistic. Sure the economy is slowing down. Yes, there should be a global increase in PM applications in infrastructure projects. And most likely we will see a leveling of salaries. But, that is still very good news when other industries and professions are facing layoffs.

Well, we will see. Am I too optimistic? Is this the time for PM practitioners to shine and help organizations survive? I think so, yes I do.

More later.