I made it to Dubai, and now awaiting a flight to Bahrain. This airport constantly reminds me of diversity...in culture, language, religion, profession. It has become a hub comparable to any great transport hub in the world. Very interesting place.
Well, I am back to my favorite subject right now...the global economy. I am forever frustrated that the economic condition is uncertain, declining, and keeping us from a focus on value. I called it the great global distraction but we can't look at it as a distraction but rather as part of life. It is living life on life's terms, not ours.
There is a significant effort globally toward government based stimulus plans. It is not a US phenomenon, and not a matter of just cutting taxes or making loans safe. These stimulus plans are loaded with projects and for the most part, represent a critical portfolio of change. In the US, there is already about US$160 billion in infrastructure construction in the original US$750 billion plan, not including the significant increase that President Obama is now pushing through congress. China is investing nearly US$500 billion, in the same approach.
Our economies are so different. Bob Chen, PMI's Managing Director in our Beijing office, pointed out that slightly more than 50% of the GDP in China is from government funding, which is about four times the contribution from government in the US. The US is a consumer economy, no doubt about it. Yet, the plans are similar: shoring up the money market, cutting taxes, and lots of infrastructure construction.
Asia is also caught up in the need for infrastructure construction. It is estimated by the World Bank and the Asia Development Bank, that Asia needs about US$250-300 billion per year in infrastructure construction to sustain its growth. I spoke with Raj Kalady, PMI's managing director in India and his staff last week, and they informed me of the same thing as China: weakening of their prime markets (in this case, IT outsourcing), while the government is investing heavily in their 11th five year plan to build infrastructure to sustain growth. Every conceivable aspect of the infrastructure in India, and other countries in Asia, needs attention. All across Asia, from India to Southeast Asia, there is a movement to infrastructure.
The national governments in Europe are also taking the same approach. Spain, Italy, and countries in Central Europe, are all beginning to increase funding to federal, state and municipal governments, to spur the economy. While where I am today - in the Arabian Gulf - oil exploration is slowing down because of the significant fall off in demand and the rapid drop in the price of a barrel of oil. The bubble in real estate has burst in some parts of the Arabian Gulf, but it is still alive, particularly in Saudi Arabia. However, infrastructure development still goes on. In Dubai, for example, the rapid rail system and the Al-Mahmoud Airport (due to open in June) are both being accelerated.
The one interesting factoid is that McDonald's is expanding dramatically in Europe. In the latest issue of the Financial Times, McDonald's executives were quoted as saying they plan to add 240 new food outlets across Western and Central Europe. This will add about 12,000 jobs and create a big portfolio of change for them.
Digesting all of this, you come away with the conclusion that project work will continue to exist. Construction will certainly be a focus, but is not alone. Starting from the top, all of these government plans are massive change portfolios. The need for portfolio and program management in the public sector has never been greater. Unfortunately, federal governments are not known for their excellence in portfolio management, with the exception of maybe China, which is a centrally controlled economy.
Even with construction as the focus, technology rules! In the US, federal buildings will go through a "greening" process, and green buildings have to be smarter. Power distribution and alternative energy sources also have to be smarter, and will spur development in new areas. The governments of the world have not choice but to focus more on innovation, results, and on technology. Obama, for example, is adding a Chief Performance Officer (CPO) position in the White House, and also a Chief Technical Officer (CTO). This is not new to countries like Finland and Singapore but is very new to the US. I suspect other countries will follow suit if they have not already done so.
Rail, air, and road construction requires a variety of associated project management approaches. IT, finance, and HR will all need attention, especially in the arena of project management.
So, will it be a "breeze" for project managers during this recession? It's doubtful, very doubtful. No profession is going to be unscathed. However, I think that there will be more project work distributed than we can imagine right now. The PM talent gap will shrink quickly, but will the PM practitioner still have work?
I think so, but we'll have to see. More later.
