Color me naïve, but I am optimistic about PM practitioners during this economic downturn. Why, you ask? Well, I have to say it is because the facts are out there. Here are some of the facts that make me optimistic.

First, the US economic recovery plan has been leaking out, slow but sure, and it seems to be mirroring, in part, to the recovery plans in the Arabian Gulf and in China. Essentially, these three recovery plans focus on government sponsored infrastructure projects over the next three years. These are not "light" plans for recovery. In China, the plan is to invest nearly US$550 billion in infrastructure work, including bridges, dams, power distribution, railway and trains, etc. Each requires not only construction and raw materials, but a variety of supply, control, and finished goods industries.

In the Arabian Gulf, economic cities (Saudi Arabia), experimental alternative energy cities (Masdar in Abu Dhabi), light rail and airports (Dubai) are some of the accelerated...yes, that's right ACCELERATED, NOT DELAYED...projects in the Gulf region.

It seems that the USA is doing much the same with its recovery plan. It appears to be a robust plan of infrastructure, including the modernization and "greening" of US federal facilities throughout the world. Much needed renewal of highways, bridges, and other "horizontal" construction is central to the plan.

In addition, there is a plan for investment incentives in the form of tax deferrals and rebates to spur new business and consumer buying. Unfortunately I may be very old by the time Congress finishes debating the effectiveness of the various measures. But one thing is for sure: there is a lot of project business underway.

With all of the national government recovery programs is the demand for good execution, and in the USA, the Arabian Gulf, and China, PM is alive and well. Granted, the practice might be inconsistent, and in many cases,....well, substandard really....the need for excellence in PM is being rigorously referenced. In the USA, the new administration of Barack Obama has appointed a Chief Performance Officer to ensure better execution of projects.

Finally, during 2008, PMI completed a research project investigating a potential "gap" in the supply of qualified and experienced professionals. The report revealed that there would be a significant gap in the next five years, assuming that the economy would continue to grow at the rate it was growing. Well, it is clear that the growth did not happen.

But, it is realistic to assume that the "gap" was eaten up by the slowdown in the economy. In short, perhaps we will be facing a supply of qualified PMs equaling demand. This could mean continued work but without the rapid rise in salaries or compensation packages for qualified PMs that was experienced in the last five years. That is not superb news but seems to indicate that project work would still be available, and we might not experience layoffs.

Yep, I am optimistic. Sure the economy is slowing down. Yes, there should be a global increase in PM applications in infrastructure projects. And most likely we will see a leveling of salaries. But, that is still very good news when other industries and professions are facing layoffs.

Well, we will see. Am I too optimistic? Is this the time for PM practitioners to shine and help organizations survive? I think so, yes I do.

More later.