I am in Denver, at the 2008 Global Congress-North America. We will have a record 4000+ attendees at the congress. At the Leadership Institute Meeting (LIM), we have 730 attendees from 33 countries...also the largest LIM ever in our history. I am delighted by the crowds, but I am more excited about the energy of these leaders. It is amazing and invigorating! All of this however, is dimmed a bit about my hesitancy concerning the future. Yep, you guessed it...I am wondering about the economy.

The current economic crisis is like a grey cloud over most of the world, as national leaders sort out the debris and the facts. Last week, the US congress passed an $840 Billion USD bailout plan to save as many financial institutions as possible. Everyone in the USA is speculating as to whether that is enough, and whether it will work. Leaders from the 15 single currency countries in Europe met and agreed to support the European financial institutions, without knowing how many banks will need help. This is after the nationalization of Fortis Bank by the governments of Belgium, Netherlands, and Luxembourg. To top it all off, the major US automakers have access to nearly US$85 billion in low cost loans, to be able to develop the platforms they need to compete globally. And earlier this week, I read that General Motors and Chrysler have begun merger discussions.

This is crazy but not new. I have managed through the 1970s, when one of the longest recessions plagued the USA for 16 years, and finally ended in the early 1980s, only to be hit again in 1990. The dot.com bubble burst in 2000 and then we had the post 9/11financial crisis. Always the same..."we will get out of this...just hang in there, and wait...don't panic." There are more PhD theses written on the cause-effect relationships of economic life cycles than I think there are new cars on the market. The economic cycles operate more like viruses, than they do as predictable, manageable systems.

I wonder what will happen to the public projects in the world. Depending on whose figures you read, there are US$12-15 trillion in fixed capital investment (FCI) in roads, highways, power grids, watershed management, buildings, airports, railways, and more. These are projects underway. And you know, many countries, like India and China, are depending on these projects to continue to grow, reduce poverty, and to provide better food and water supplies.  Yet a steady supply of money is critical to completing these projects, whether in national or foreign direct investment (FDI). If, as projected by economists, the flow of money will slow considerably in the near term, many projects will be put on hold. What happens to jobs in all sectors affected by FDI/FCI?

PMI needs to look into it, talk about it. What is happening out there? More to come.